Double Chance Football Betting System
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- Betting On Football
First, let’s get the football betting systems that should be avoided out of the way. The Martingale Method basically entails a bettor doubling their stake immediately following any losing even-money bet, thereby allowing the first win to recover all previous losses. Good in theory, not quite the case in reality.
What is double chance betting? Simply put, in this betting strategy you can bet on two outcomes of a game. Needless to say, the only precondition is that the sport you are betting on has three different possible outcomes (e.g. Win, Draw, Loss). Double Chance prediction has a 66% winning rate with all these predictions for today are offered for free. Also double chance tips can be payed as a Single bet or Accumulator bet for better odds. Offering double chance tips to bet for today, Feedinco team monitors all double chance prediction relentlessly. As there are three possible outcomes for each match, each result has a 33.3% chance of occurring. This makes your acca bets more susceptible to Fergie time goals and sudden turnarounds. To prevent lost bets, an increasing number of punters have turned towards double chance bets. When and How to Use the Double Chance Bet; Betting Value in Accumulator Bets; Football Betting and the Labouchere System; 3 Alternative Betting Strategies to Win Soccer Bets; Outright Betting in Football Explained; Betting on Half Time/Full Time Result; Betting on Goals Scored (Under) 5 Tips for Placing Better Football Accumulators.
Those looking to convert their football knowledge into income via a bookmaker will often use a mix of research and instincts as the basis for decision making on bets.
Yet, even when equipped with a profound knowledge of the sport, they can still be caught out without an adequate system or football betting strategy.
Despite having confidence in your own ability to make the right calls on football markets, as we all know things don’t always pan out as predicted in football and sport in general.
That’s why bettors need to have a strategy that they stick to in order to nullify the potential of abnormal results harming your bankroll.
In this guide, we’ll analyse a few betting systems in football to give more food for thought for punters who follow the global game, and help you decide on your overall betting strategy on the sport.
Table of Contents
- Betting Systems That Work
- The Betting System That MIGHT Work For You
- Betting Systems That DON’T Work
Betting Systems That Work
We’ve split this up into two sections for you.
This first section looks at betting systems that really work.
With these, you’re either guaranteed or have a good chance of making regular profits:
Matched Betting
Are you looking for a football betting system that works every single time?
The number one and by far the best football betting system is matched betting.
Unlike a few other methods listed in this post, matched betting is the only football system that is virtually risk-free (barring human error and gubbings) and will continue to deliver big profits time and time again.
The trick is to back bets and then lay them off so that you can’t actually lose a bet – regardless of the outcome, you will win.
You should be doing this on promotions where a bookmaker has promised to match your bet with a free bet. By laying off your bet, you can’t lose. You are guaranteed a free bet regardless of the outcome of the game.
You can then also lay off the free bet to ensure you make a profit no matter what.
You are guaranteed to make a profit every single month with the matched betting system.
We’ve made over £75,000 in profit since starting matched betting — and we’ve never had a losing month. (If you’re in the UK, you can start here for free.)
Betfair Trading
Did you know you can make money on football – or any sport – without even using a bookmaker?
By using Betfair Exchange, you can back for and against outcomes similarly to how you would on a regular bookmaker.
However, you will get better odds and the ability to ‘trade’ odds in real-time – you can buy and sell just like on a stock exchange.
Whether you’re betting pre-match or in-play, you can use trading to make guaranteed profits.
This can be a complex process to get your head around, but we have a post that should really help you out: The Definitive Guide to Betfair Trading.
The Betting System That MIGHT Work For You
This is a bankroll management system, rather than strictly a football betting system, but it is something you should definitely consider:
The Kelly Criterion
Based on sound money management, the Kelly Criterion is a betting system that implements a calculated method to determine the stake of a bet on an outcome with higher-than-expected odds.
The system maximises the value of the bet by determining the percentage of your bankroll you should use.
There are many variations of this formula, and some appear comprehensible only to math wizards, but here we’ve put it in layman’s terms.
Stake = (Decimal Odds x % Chance Win) – 1) / (Decimal Odds – 1) * 100
Stake = Maximum stake
Decimal Odds = Odds offered by the bookmaker
% Chance Win = Probability of winning as determined by you, expressed as a decimal point
Let’s say you have calculated the probability as 55% (0.55) on an even-money (2.0) bet:
Stake = ((2.0 x 0.55) – 1) / (2.0 – 1) x 100
Stake = ((1.10 – 1) / 1) x 100
Stake = 10%
MAKING THAT EASIER FOR YOU…
For those who get headaches from formulas such as the above, the stake, put simply, is the difference between the probability of winning and losing as determined by you.
If you don’t have an edge, or have a negative edge, then don’t bet.
Just like any system the Kelly Criterion has its drawbacks, and these are quite pronounced in football betting.
Firstly, using the example above, it often asks you to invest a significant amount of your bankroll on a bet.
Given it’s an aggressive strategy that looks to maximise your profits, you’ll find that a large stake is often required.
The second and most significant shortcoming of this betting system lies in the Kelly Criterion’s assumption that a bettor is able to accurately predict the probability of a certain outcome.
If you misinterpret a team’s chance of winning as a percentage value, the calculations behind this method become skewed and you pay the price.
Therefore, if deciding to test the method in football betting, perhaps it’s better to be conservative and avoid overestimating the probability of a victory.
That will ensure your stakes aren’t exuberant and the losses don’t eat up all of your bankroll.
Betting Systems That DON’T Work
Here, we look at the betting systems that are not sensible or profitable long-term investments of time or money.
Whilst you may have heard about them elsewhere, or have been recommended them by people you think you can trust, they are absolutely not worth pursuing – ever.
Martingale Method
First, let’s get the football betting systems that should be avoided out of the way.
The Martingale Method basically entails a bettor doubling their stake immediately following any losing even-money bet, thereby allowing the first win to recover all previous losses.
Good in theory, not quite the case in reality.
Double Chance Football Betting System Chart
Why? Because a run of bad luck could essentially bankrupt any bettor using this method.
Let’s say you lost four even-money bets in a row having put £10 on your first wager. Your second bet would have to be £20, third £40 and fourth £80. Before you know it you’re out of pocket to the tune of £150.
Anyone who has invested time and money in sports betting understands that no matter how sound your research and analysis has been, a series of losing bets by account of bad luck is entirely possible.
This method is common in roulette and people think it’s fail-proof. Well, let me tell you, chasing losses is never good – I’ve seen it land on black 20 times in a row before, seriously.
So, when implementing the Martingale Method it may seem tempting to think: “The next win will make up for all the previous losses.”
The reality is a lot different. That win may not come before you realise that you’re out of cash.
It’s simply not wise to chase your losses when gambling in general, and this is method asks you to do so blindly.
Stay clear of the of the Martingale Method when wagering on football – the only way it would ever work is if you had infinite amounts of money. This is impossible of course.
Fibonacci Method
Among the three possible outcomes to football matches – win, loss or draw – one often gets overlooked, the draw.
Perhaps this is because they can be more difficult to pick than either Team A or Team B winning.
That’s certainly the reasoning behind implementing the Fibonacci Method, which is based on the theory that it is harder for bookmakers to predict a draw that the other two possible outcomes.
So, by using the Fibonacci Method in football betting, the bettor tries to exploit this.
The Fibonacci Method is based on a mathematical sequence where each new number equals the total of the previous two.
It looks like this: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… and so on.
How does this all apply to football?
Well, implementing this method has been encouraged on those wishing to bet on draws.
Basically, the method entails the implementation of two principles:
- Find bets on draws with a probability above 2.618 as reflected by bookmaker odds
- In the case of losing bets, increase your subsequent betting stake by following the Fibonacci sequence
As with the Martingale Method, Fibonacci thinking relies on continually increasing your stake to cover your previous losses.
We’ve outlined the dangers of this, but by comparison to the Martingale Method the increases within a sequence of Fibonacci bets are gradual, thereby minimising the total amount of liability during a bad run.
That’s not to say that this method protects you from the risks of seeing your bankroll disappear in the case of losing streak. It can.
But the mathematical principle behind the Fibonacci approach is a lot more measured than simply doubling your stake each time.
If pursuing this method, perhaps it’s worth reviewing the amount of draws that have taken place across several seasons in different leagues, and choosing a league where draws are more common.
With some statistical analysis as your back-up, this is certainly a method that would be worth testing the success of over time.
Betting Systems: Are They for You?
It’s all about maximising your edge over the bookmaker in the sports gambling business.
With matched betting, you can guarantee that edge 100% of the time. Sign up for our free matched betting course via this link.
Other than that, a betting system based on proven mathematical principles is a good starting point.
Look towards Betfair Trading or challenge bets.
Combine that with sound knowledge of the sport and disciplined decision making, and you may have found a pathway to profit.
But as this post has highlighted, there are risks aligned with some betting systems when it is applied to football, some more prominent then others.
Assessing the value of one betting system over another is crucial, so hopefully we’ve helped with that.
Testing the one you think is most risk averse is perhaps worth pursuing, but if over time the numbers don’t add up it’s not the strategy for you.
Through patience, discipline and perhaps a little bit of a conservative streak, you may just find that a betting system can give you the advantage you crave.
I remember when I first started searching for a proven betting system googling the term “betting systems.”
There was all sorts of progressive staking systems, martingale systems, stop at a winner systems, progressive laying systems. The fact was though that none of these betting systems held up to any long term analysis and would normally blow your bank if you followed them for long enough.
But after researching a bit longer I found a few betting systems that did actually work.
Here are four betting systems that I have used over the years.
Which continue to be profitable in the year 2021.
Proven Betting System 1 – Arbitrage Betting
Sports Arbitrage betting is something that I still use on the occasion as part of my portfolio. Arbitrage betting involves covering every outcome of an event. In order to guarantee a profit no matter the outcome.
Here is an example of a number of arbitrage bets found using the software rebelbetting.
For example if we take one of the arbitrage bets above.
There is a 3.7% arbitrage bet between The New Saints and Bala in the Welsh division.
In the draw no bet market The New Saints could be backed at 1.53 with Marathonbet and Bala could be backed at 3.2 with William Hill.
For every £100 risked across both outcomes a profit of £3.7 could be guaranteed.
With arbitrage betting you can make several of these bets every day and gradually build up your bankroll with almost zero risk.
It is a system that once you understand can be used again and again.
Negatives of arbitrage betting?
The only issue with arbitrage betting is that it has a limited life cycle. Bookmakers will eventually limit arbitrage bettors accounts once they see that they are not going to be profitable customers.
Arbitrage betting is a great way to build up a betting or trading bankroll. Before you move on to betting or trading with exchanges and Asian bookmakers.
Proven Betting System 2 – Value Betting
Value betting is similar to arbitrage betting as it involves exploiting the soft bookmakers. A value bet involves looking for odds that are out of line with the sharp Asian Bookmakers or betting exchanges.
Given that the odds at sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges are quite efficient in big markets. The betting exchanges and sharp Asian bookmakers often offer close to the true odds of an event. Sometimes when there is odds movement on these events soft bookmakers will be slow to move their odds.
Consistently betting on odds above the Asian bookmakers and betting exchanges has proven to be profitable.
Image courtesy ofTrademate Sports.
The advantage that value betting has over arbitrage betting is that you generate a much higher turnover and use lower stakes which may make your accounts last longer then conventional arbitrage betting.
A lot of bookmakers will also offer value accumulators often on a weekly basis as part of odds boosts or special promotions.
Negatives of value betting?
Again the only downside to consistently taking value bets is that soft bookmakers will eventually see that you are able to make money from them and will limit or close your account.
However if you plan to make money from sports betting. Getting banned from soft bookmakers is going to happen whichever way you choose to make money from them.
Double Chance Football Betting Strategy
Proven Betting System 3 – Matched Betting
The popularity of matched betting has exploded in the last few years and with good reason.
Matched betting is probably one the best and easiest ways to generate a good second income online. It involves taking advantage of bookmaker offers to guarantee a profit much like arbitrage.
The big advantage that matched betting has over arbitrage is that is a lot less obvious and harder for bookmaker’s employed traders to spot.
I have covered matched betting in a lot more detail in this article below.
Negatives of matched betting?
There isn’t many downsides to matched betting. Bookmakers will stop giving you promotions eventually. But as discussed before this is what happens when you become a profitable sports bettor.
So there you have 3 proven betting systems that are currently working in 2020. Which should also prove be profitable in the long term.
Each of these betting systems involve exploiting soft bookmakers.
This is really the best way to start making money from the sports betting markets and allows you to build up a nice trading bankroll or good second income.
Proven Betting System 4 – Betting On Team News
One proven betting strategy that you might not know is reacting quickly to team news.
Odds can rapidly change on the basis of team news.
If you have a good knowledge of the teams that are playing, then you will often be able to secure yourself a value bet.
Here is a good example of how odds can change when a teams lineup is announced.
In this example I have highlighted the point at which team news was announced.
This was a Europa League between Arsenal and Standard Liege.
Arsenal announced a weaker side then expected, from this news the odds on Arsenal drifted quite significantly before the game started.
If you were familiar with the teams and reacted to the information you would have been able to secure yourself a value bet on Standard Liege. Due to the fact that Arsenal’s odds were drifting so the odds on the draw and Standard Liege would have to shorten.
This is a really effective strategy and if you have access to betting exchanges you can secure yourself a profit before the game even starts.
Here are two videos which explain this strategy in more detail.
Watch this video on YouTube
Which betting systems have you found to work best?
Are there any that are missing from this list?
Let me know in the comments below.