Canelo Kovalev Bet
There have been a few instances of fighters jumping up two weight classes to take on the dominant champion in the division. Kell Brook tried three years ago when losing to Gennady Golovkin, and Mikey Garcia failed earlier this year when taking on Errol Spence. This weekend sees another attempt, as Canelo Alvarez challenges Sergey Kovalev for his WBO light-heavyweight belt on Saturday (DAZN, 9 p.m. ET) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Alvarez (51-1-2, 35 KOs), 29, is the current unified world middleweight champion. His only defeat came against Floyd Mayweather six years ago, a bout he lost on points. Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs), who is 7 years older, has suffered three defeats in his past seven fights. Two of the losses came against Andre Ward; the other came against Eleider Alvarez, whom Kovalez beat in the rematch in February.
Much has been made of the two-weight division jump made by Canelo, and we must remember that he was a unified super-welterweight champion only five years ago. The one thing that most don't recall is he was rehydrating to around the light-heavy limit of 175 come fight night for many of those bouts. This is Canelo's first time fighting at the 175 limit, and he is facing a foe who, at 6 feet tall with a 72-inch reach, will be holding 4-inch height and 1.5-inch reach advantages.
Canelo's level of competition the past eight years or so reads like a 'who's who?' of boxing from 154 to 168 pounds. He escaped his first fight against Gennady Golovkin with a draw and won the rematch fair and square. He has gone up against the likes of Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Daniel Jacobs, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout, Josesito Lopez and Kermit Cintron. He has never ducked a challenge, and he is in the conversation as the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He has impeccable judgment of distance, decent defensive skills, picks his punches very well, has good power and possesses an iron chin. If anybody is equipped to make the two-weight jump to 175, Canelo is undoubtedly the man.
Kovalev was seen as an unbeatable machine until around three years ago, when he lost for the first time against Ward by points. Ward beat him decisively by stoppage in the rematch, leading to the idea that perhaps 'Krusher' was more myth than mystical. The quality of Kovalev's opposition leading up to Ward was hardly stellar.
Bernard Hopkins was 49 years old when Kovalev outpointed him. A fighter as lauded as Kovalev should have been able to stop a man of that age, even one as good as Hopkins. Kovalev used to be a very aggressive, come-forward-throwing-both-hands fighter. But these days, he seems content to sit behind a jab, and he certainly does not throw the right hand anywhere near as much as he once did. Alarming signs of age were apparent in his most recent outing 11 weeks ago against Anthony Yarde. After having everything go his way for the first seven rounds, Kovalev found himself under heavy fire from Yarde in the eighth and was almost put away by a fighter who had done nothing to that point. Yarde had to kicking himself for not putting Kovalev under that pressure earlier.
Canelo Kovalev Betting Odds
Gambling relevance: In the 47 combined fights by Canelo and Kovalev that have been scheduled for 12 rounds, 30 have been won inside the distance, with two inside-the-distance losses for Kovalev. Based on those stats, there is a more than 65% chance that an inside-the-distance outcome could happen in this fight.
I see this fight as one between a fighter at the peak of his power and one in decline, and I think Canelo and his team have picked this fight at the right time. The stoppage defeats Kovalev has suffered have affected the way he fights and his confidence. The punch resistance of Kovalev is certainly not what it used to be, and I see Canelo hitting Kovalev hard enough and often enough -- including shots to the body -- to wear down the champion in the second half of the fight. I am going against the industry insiders' advice (which you can read below) because two of the three admitted to me that they had not seen the Kovalev fight against Yarde.
By Matt Lieberman: Saul Canelo Alvarez is an early favorite with the bettors to defeat WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) in November. The fight still hasn’t been. Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev odds Sportsbooks have installed Alvarez as a sizable favorite, according to Sportsbook Review's composite odds. The logical theory is that oddsmakers are looking. Alvarez opened as a -387 favorite against Kovalev in their upcoming fight, which means you'll need to bet $387 to win $100. Meanwhile, Kovalev is a +300 underdog, meaning if you bet $100, you could.
- Oct 31, 2019 THE ODDS According to the boxing odds at BetOnline, Canelo is a -380 (Bet $380 to win $100) favorite, while the champion Kovalev is an underdog at +320 (Bet $100 to win $320). While there isn’t.
- Canelo Alvarez v Sergey Kovalev Preview And Betting Tips. The MGM Grand in Las Vegas plays host to one of the big fights of the year on Saturday night when Canelo Alvarez steps up two weight classes to take on WBO heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev.
Pick: A medium-sized play on the fight not going the distance at +110 or better
What do the industry insiders/experts say?
'I go against the grain on this one. I have Kovalev being too big and too strong and coming away with a clean decision.'
-- John Scully, former light-heavyweight world title challenger
'Take nothing away from Canelo. He is an amazingly talented fighter. For me, he landed at his natural weight class, which saw him at his best at 154. He has had some difficulty with the natural middleweights. I think jumping two weight classes to fight Kovalev is just too much of a jump, and maybe [he] has bitten off more than he can chew. Kovalev comes down from 200 pounds and is used to fighting big guys. Canelo still has a chance if he uses a brutal body attack, but it's different taking the risk against a much bigger, stronger guy. Both fighters seem to weaken in later rounds, and my concern is also how fast Canelo will fade by pushing and hitting and blocking a strong light-heavyweight. So I am going Kovalev.'
-- Kelly Pavlik, former WBC/WBO middleweight champion
'If Kovalev has enough left, he should win. Canelo must have seen something in him to want this fight, and Kovalev is coming off a long fight not too long ago. If Kovalev can establish that jab and keep it going for the full 12 [rounds], then he can win. If there is any sign of slipping, then it could easily go the other way, and it could be painful.'
Canelo Kovalev Betting Odds
-- Derrick Harmon, former two-time light-heavyweight title challenger